As Hugo Chavez' health was declining, discussions about his
succession focused on a small group of individuals, two of whom dominated the
field. One was Nicolás Maduro, a long-time follower of Chavez who had been
President of the National Assembly, foreign minister and most recently vice-president.
The other one was Diosdado Cabello, a former military officer—he joined Hugo
Chavez in a military coup attempt, in 1992—governor, government minister and President
of the National Assembly since January 2012. While Maduro had little power of
his own and was largely dependent on Chavez, Cabello had built on his close
relationship with the military and he was seen as a force of his own within chavista ranks, in spite of the many
accusations of corruption that have followed him over the years. In the
dramatic press conference Chavez held before leaving for his last journey to
Cuba, he put an end to the speculations and told Venezuelans that his chosen
successor would be Maduro. Cabello complied and, once the leader was gone, he
very publicly embraced Chavez' designated heir.
During the campaign itself, Cabello was given little space while
Maduro himself—along with Chavez' ghost, regularly brought in through birds and
tweets—completely dominated the party's public presence. Cabello may have been
working on his own power base in the background but, clearly, Maduro was trying
to fully exploit the Great Man's unction to consolidate his position within the
party. He blew his chance however, barely squeaking through with a still
contested advantage of 270,000 votes.
Cabello was quick to pounce. On the very night of the
"victory" and right after Maduro's confused and shaky speech, Cabello,
wearing a military shirt and Chavez' signature red scarf, said very publicly
that the tight results called for "a profound auto-critique," a
comment clearly directed at Maduro. Suddenly, his lesser presence in the doomed
campaign had become a major asset. He has been on the offensive ever since.
Maduro, who had claimed in his post-election speech that he
did not fear a full recount, quickly backtracked, no doubt under pressure from
those, Cabello chief among them, who had made their sums and saw the danger
involved in playing too clean. The government thus made it clear that the
results would stand. Maduro, in an "express ceremony" held
Monday morning, was formally declared president-elect by the head of the
country's electoral commission, Tibisay Lucena, something she had conspicuously
avoided to do the night before, when announcing election results. President
Maduro now has to contend with a divided international reaction and a very calm
but determined opposition. His standing among
chavistas, meanwhile, is at its nadir.
Cabello is grabbing an increasingly large share of the post-election
crisis media coverage. His well-publicized rants at the National Assembly have
been extremely aggressive. He keeps calling opposition presidential candidate
Henrique Capriles a "fascist" and has just dismissed a number of
opposition members from their position as heads of various National Assembly commissions.
Part of his vehemence can probably be traced to his 2008 defeat to Capriles in
the race for governor of the state of Miranda, but as one of the regime's
leaders most commonly associated with corruption—a leading "narco
military," as Venezuelans put it—he may also have an awful lot at stake in
his party's keeping control of the state.
Thanks to his much stronger base among the party and the military,
Cabello's hand should grow stronger as things deteriorate and tensions rise. If
Maduro attempts to resist his influence, or if Cabello is just unhappy with
having to wait six years before getting his chance at power, a forced
resignation—or a removal by a simple decision of the chavista-controlled
Supreme Court (as per art. 233 of the Constitution)—would offer an easy cover
for a legal coup. While formally out of the country's line of executive
succession, Cabello's position as President of the Assembly is in fact perfect
to take over power. In cases of resignation or incapacity, indeed, the
Executive Vice-President is prevented by the Constitution to run in the new
elections, which must be held within thirty days. Cabello by contrast would be
free to run...
